Author: David Thorstad
-
Mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk (Part 4: Optimistic population dynamics)
I expand on the moral importance of modeling population dynamics by studying an optimistic growth model due to Christian Tarsney. I show that even in optimistic models, incorporating population dynamics tends to substantially decrease the expected value of existential risk mitigation.
-
The good it promises (Part 6: Alice Crary)
Alice Crary’s essay “Against `effective altruism'” argues that effective altruism inherits a number of assumptions from consequentialism, including a focus on moral questions about particular actions and a framing of those questions in terms of the point of view of the universe.
-
Mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk (Part 3: Population dynamics)
I discuss a third mistake in the moral mathematics of existential risk: neglecting population dynamics. I show that the value of existential risk mitigation is sharply reduced in standard population models.
-
Epistemics: (Part 5: The value of cost-effectiveness analysis)
The declining role of cost-effectiveness analysis comes with significant practical, symbolic, philosophical, and leadership-based costs. Spelling out these costs in detail will allow us to assess whether they are worth paying.
-
Epistemics: (Part 4: The fall of cost-effectiveness analysis)
This post chronicles the declining role of cost-effectiveness analysis within the effective altruism movement. While early effective altruists championed the use of rigorous cost-effectiveness analyses, in many circles those methods have fallen decidedly out of favor.
-
The good it promises (Part 5: de Coriolis et al.)
Andrew deCoriolis and colleagues urge effective altruists to dream big, keeping their eye on the prize: an end to factory farming. In this post, I discuss what deCoriolis and colleagues like about effective altruists’ animal advocacy work, and what changes they’d like to see.