Author: David Thorstad
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Mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk (Part 4: Optimistic population dynamics)
I expand on the moral importance of modeling population dynamics by studying an optimistic growth model due to Christian Tarsney. I show that even in optimistic models, incorporating population dynamics tends to substantially decrease the expected value of existential risk mitigation.
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The good it promises (Part 7: Crary continued)
This post continues my discussion of Alice Crary’s essay, “Against `effective altruism’,” focusing on Crary’s composite critique of effective altruism.
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The good it promises (Part 6: Alice Crary)
Alice Crary’s essay “Against `effective altruism'” argues that effective altruism inherits a number of assumptions from consequentialism, including a focus on moral questions about particular actions and a framing of those questions in terms of the point of view of the universe.
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Meta: Posting less frequently
I’ll be reducing my posting frequency to biweekly rather than weekly, at least for the time being. Sorry.
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Exaggerating the risks (Part 10: Biorisk: More grounds for doubt)
Continuing my treatment of existential biorisk, I give four further reasons to suspect that existential biorisk may be lower than many claim it to be.
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Mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk (Part 3: Population dynamics)
I discuss a third mistake in the moral mathematics of existential risk: neglecting population dynamics. I show that the value of existential risk mitigation is sharply reduced in standard population models.
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Epistemics: (Part 5: The value of cost-effectiveness analysis)
The declining role of cost-effectiveness analysis comes with significant practical, symbolic, philosophical, and leadership-based costs. Spelling out these costs in detail will allow us to assess whether they are worth paying.
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Epistemics: (Part 4: The fall of cost-effectiveness analysis)
This post chronicles the declining role of cost-effectiveness analysis within the effective altruism movement. While early effective altruists championed the use of rigorous cost-effectiveness analyses, in many circles those methods have fallen decidedly out of favor.
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The good it promises (Part 5: de Coriolis et al.)
Andrew deCoriolis and colleagues urge effective altruists to dream big, keeping their eye on the prize: an end to factory farming. In this post, I discuss what deCoriolis and colleagues like about effective altruists’ animal advocacy work, and what changes they’d like to see.