Category: Biorisk
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Exaggerating the risks (Part 15: Biorisk from LLMs)
This post begins a two-part investigation into biorisk from LLMs. I argue that a recent GovAI report provides limited support for existential biorisk from LLMs.
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Exaggerating the risks (Part 14: MacAskill on biorisk)
I review Wlil MacAskill’s arguments in What we owe the future for high levels of existential biorisk. I argue that they are insufficient.
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Exaggerating the risks (Part 13: Ord on Biorisk)
Toby Ord suggests that humanity faces a 3% risk of existential catastrophe from biological causes in the next 100 years. I review Ord’s arguments and argue that they are insufficient to ground this estimate.
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Exaggerating the risks (Part 12: Millett and Snyder-Beattie on biorisk)
Can existing arguments by effective altruists ground high estimates of existential biorisk? I consider three estimates provided by Piers Millett and Andrew Snyder-Beattie.
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Exaggerating the risks (Part 11: Biorisk: Still more grounds for doubt)
Rounding out the initial case for skepticism about existential biorisk, I give four final reasons to suspect that existential biorisk may be lower than many claim it to be.
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Exaggerating the risks (Part 10: Biorisk: More grounds for doubt)
Continuing my treatment of existential biorisk, I give four further reasons to suspect that existential biorisk may be lower than many claim it to be.
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Exaggerating the risks (Part 9: Biorisk – Grounds for doubt)
Effective altruists often argue that biological phenomena pose a significant near-term existential risk. In this post, I give some preliminary reasons to doubt that claim.