Category: Academic Papers
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Mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk (Part 4: Optimistic population dynamics)
I expand on the moral importance of modeling population dynamics by studying an optimistic growth model due to Christian Tarsney. I show that even in optimistic models, incorporating population dynamics tends to substantially decrease the expected value of existential risk mitigation.
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The good it promises (Part 7: Crary continued)
This post continues my discussion of Alice Crary’s essay, “Against `effective altruism’,” focusing on Crary’s composite critique of effective altruism.
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The good it promises (Part 6: Alice Crary)
Alice Crary’s essay “Against `effective altruism'” argues that effective altruism inherits a number of assumptions from consequentialism, including a focus on moral questions about particular actions and a framing of those questions in terms of the point of view of the universe.
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Mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk (Part 3: Population dynamics)
I discuss a third mistake in the moral mathematics of existential risk: neglecting population dynamics. I show that the value of existential risk mitigation is sharply reduced in standard population models.
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The good it promises (Part 5: de Coriolis et al.)
Andrew deCoriolis and colleagues urge effective altruists to dream big, keeping their eye on the prize: an end to factory farming. In this post, I discuss what deCoriolis and colleagues like about effective altruists’ animal advocacy work, and what changes they’d like to see.
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Mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk (Part 2: Ignoring background risk)
I discuss a second mistake in the moral mathematics of existential risk: neglecting background risk. I show how a leading discussion of biorisk makes this mistake, and also makes the mistake discussed in Part 1 of this series.
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The good it promises, the harm it does (Part 4: Lori Gruen)
Revolutionaries argue that meaningful change requires overthrowing unjust systems. Reformers counter that it is often best to improve conditions within existing systems. Lori Guren proposes a middle road between revolution and reform.
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Mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk (Part 1: Introduction and cumulative risk)
Many authors give alarmingly high estimates of the value of existential risk mitigation. In this series based on my paper of the same name, I discuss three mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk that unduly inflate estimates of the value of existential risk mitigation.
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The good it promises, the harm it does (Part 3: Carol J. Adams)
Carol J Adams proposes that effective altruists can learn valuable lessons from the feminist tradition of care ethics. I discuss two concrete lessons and sketch a care ethical approach.