Category: Mistakes in moral mathematics

Mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk (Part 5: Implications)
I draw five implications from my discussion of mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk.

Mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk (Part 4: Optimistic population dynamics)
I expand on the moral importance of modeling population dynamics by studying an optimistic growth model due to Christian Tarsney. I show that even in optimistic models, incorporating population dynamics tends to substantially decrease the expected value of existential risk mitigation.

Mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk (Part 3: Population dynamics)
I discuss a third mistake in the moral mathematics of existential risk: neglecting population dynamics. I show that the value of existential risk mitigation is sharply reduced in standard population models.

Mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk (Part 2: Ignoring background risk)
I discuss a second mistake in the moral mathematics of existential risk: neglecting background risk. I show how a leading discussion of biorisk makes this mistake, and also makes the mistake discussed in Part 1 of this series.

Mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk (Part 1: Introduction and cumulative risk)
Many authors give alarmingly high estimates of the value of existential risk mitigation. In this series based on my paper of the same name, I discuss three mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk that unduly inflate estimates of the value of existential risk mitigation.