Reflective altruism
I’m a philosopher at Vanderbilt University (views my own). The purpose of this blog is to use academic research to drive positive change within and around the effective altruism movement. Discussions are long-form and structured around thematic series. Subscribe below for weekly posts.
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Exaggerating the risks (Part 9: Biorisk – Grounds for doubt)
Effective altruists often argue that biological phenomena pose a significant near-term existential risk. In this post, I give some preliminary reasons to doubt that claim.
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Meta: Funded!
Reflective altruism is now fully funded through the end of 2024. Thanks to Austin Chen and Manifund for their generous support.
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Mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk (Part 2: Ignoring background risk)
I discuss a second mistake in the moral mathematics of existential risk: neglecting background risk. I show how a leading discussion of biorisk makes this mistake, and also makes the mistake discussed in Part 1 of this series.
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Epistemics: (Part 3: Peer review)
What is the role of peer review within effective altruism? What should that role be?
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Billionaire philanthropy: (Part 6: From efficiency to extravagance)
An influx of wealth led in some cases to excessive spending by effective altruists. I consider general evidence that the funding bar was lowered by the ready availability of cash, then focus on two concrete projects which look to involve excessive spending: Wytham Abbey and Redwood Research.
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The good it promises, the harm it does (Part 4: Lori Gruen)
Revolutionaries argue that meaningful change requires overthrowing unjust systems. Reformers counter that it is often best to improve conditions within existing systems. Lori Guren proposes a middle road between revolution and reform.
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Exaggerating the risks (Part 8: Carlsmith wrap-up)
I take a final look at the Carlsmith report on risks from power-seeking artificial intelligence, focusing on AI timelines as well as the argument from practical PS-misalignment to disempowerment of humanity.
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Mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk (Part 1: Introduction and cumulative risk)
Many authors give alarmingly high estimates of the value of existential risk mitigation. In this series based on my paper of the same name, I discuss three mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk that unduly inflate estimates of the value of existential risk mitigation.
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Epistemics: (Part 2: Examples)
In this post, I look at some ways in which examples are systematically misused in discussions by effective altruists. I focus on two cases: Aum Shinrikyo and the Biological Weapons Convention.