Tag: Existential risk
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Mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk (Part 4: Optimistic population dynamics)
I expand on the moral importance of modeling population dynamics by studying an optimistic growth model due to Christian Tarsney. I show that even in optimistic models, incorporating population dynamics tends to substantially decrease the expected value of existential risk mitigation.
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Exaggerating the risks (Part 10: Biorisk: More grounds for doubt)
Continuing my treatment of existential biorisk, I give four further reasons to suspect that existential biorisk may be lower than many claim it to be.
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Exaggerating the risks (Part 8: Carlsmith wrap-up)
I take a final look at the Carlsmith report on risks from power-seeking artificial intelligence, focusing on AI timelines as well as the argument from practical PS-misalignment to disempowerment of humanity.
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Mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk (Part 1: Introduction and cumulative risk)
Many authors give alarmingly high estimates of the value of existential risk mitigation. In this series based on my paper of the same name, I discuss three mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk that unduly inflate estimates of the value of existential risk mitigation.
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Existential risk pessimism and the time of perils (Part 9: Objections and replies)
This post discusses five common objections to my paper and blog series “Existential risk pessimism and the time of perils”.
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Exaggerating the risks (Part 5: Climate wrap-up)
In a last look at climate risk, I examine two final mechanisms by which climate change could lead to existential catastrophe: moist and runaway greenhouse effects, and interstate conflict. Then I draw lessons from the discussion of climate risk in Parts 2-5 of this series.
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Exaggerating the risks (Part 4: Halstead continued)
I continue to make the case that estimates of existential risk from climate change have been exaggerated, looking deeper into the Halstead report discussed in Part 3 of this series.
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Academics review What we owe the future (Part 2: Chappell liked the book)
Continuing our focus on academic reviews of MacAskill’s What We Owe the Future, let’s look at a review by Richard Chappell. Chappell liked the book.
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Existential risk pessimism and the time of perils (Part 6: Wisdom)
So far, we considered two arguments for the Time of Perils Hypothesis: an appeal to space settlement and an existential risk Kuznets curve. In this post, I look at a third argument, which appeals to wisdom.