Tag: Existential risk
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Exaggerating the risks (Part 5: Climate wrap-up)
In a last look at climate risk, I examine two final mechanisms by which climate change could lead to existential catastrophe: moist and runaway greenhouse effects, and interstate conflict. Then I draw lessons from the discussion of climate risk in Parts 2-5 of this series.
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Exaggerating the risks (Part 4: Halstead continued)
I continue to make the case that estimates of existential risk from climate change have been exaggerated, looking deeper into the Halstead report discussed in Part 3 of this series.
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Academics review What we owe the future (Part 2: Chappell liked the book)
Continuing our focus on academic reviews of MacAskill’s What We Owe the Future, let’s look at a review by Richard Chappell. Chappell liked the book.
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Existential risk pessimism and the time of perils (Part 6: Wisdom)
So far, we considered two arguments for the Time of Perils Hypothesis: an appeal to space settlement and an existential risk Kuznets curve. In this post, I look at a third argument, which appeals to wisdom.
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Exaggerating the risks (Part 3: Climate change, lessons from Halstead)
I continue to make the case that estimates of existential risk from climate change have been exaggerated, drawing on a new report about climate risk by John Halstead.
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Existential risk pessimism and the time of perils (Part 5: An existential risk Kuznets curve?)
A second argument for the Time of Perils Hypothesis, due to Leopold Aschenbrenner, draws on the idea of an existential risk Kuznets curve. Could this argument vindicate the Time of Perils Hypothesis?
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Existential risk pessimism and the time of perils (Part 4: Space)
Parts 1-3 of this series suggested that the best way to reconcile Existential Risk Pessimism with the Astronomical Value Thesis is through the Time of Perils Hypothesis. But should we believe the Time of Perils Hypothesis? One argument that is often made for the Time of Perils Hypothesis appeals to space settlement. Let’s look more carefully at that argument.
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Exaggerating the risks (Part 2: Ord on climate risk)
Toby Ord predicts a one in a thousand chance that climate change will lead by 2100 to irreversible existential catastrophe. But what does the evidence say? Here we begin to get a different story.
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Exaggerating the risks (Part 1: Introduction)
Many effective altruists think that humanity faces high levels of existential risk. In this series, I look at some places where the risks may have been exaggerated.
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Existential risk pessimism and the time of perils (Part 3: The time of perils)
In Part 2 of this series, we looked at failed ways out of the tension between Existential Risk Pessimism and the Astronomical Value Thesis. Now let’s introduce a hypothesis that might resolve the tension.