Tag: Piers Millett
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Mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk (Part 2: Ignoring background risk)
I discuss a second mistake in the moral mathematics of existential risk: neglecting background risk. I show how a leading discussion of biorisk makes this mistake, and also makes the mistake discussed in Part 1 of this series.
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Existential risk pessimism and the time of perils (Part 7: An application)
I apply lessons learned about the value of existential risk mitigation to assess the cost-effectiveness of biosecurity. Leading cost-effectiveness estimates turn out to be overstated by several orders of magnitude because they do not appropriately model background risk.